Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,681
2 New Jersey 19,754
3 Rhode Island 16,038
4 Massachusetts 15,979
5 District of Columbia 14,899
6 Louisiana 14,290
7 Arizona 13,950
8 Connecticut 13,175
9 Delaware 12,624
10 Illinois 11,792
11 Maryland 11,660
12 Mississippi 10,502
13 Nebraska 10,366
14 Iowa 10,067
15 Florida 9,611
16 Alabama 9,152
17 South Carolina 9,008
18 Georgia 8,572
19 Arkansas 8,036
20 South Dakota 8,031
21 Utah 8,001
22 Virginia 7,744
23 Tennessee 7,542
24 Nevada 7,444
25 Pennsylvania 7,435
26 Indiana 7,361
27 Michigan 7,349
28 Texas 7,218
29 North Carolina 7,144
30 California 7,032
31 Minnesota 6,845
32 New Mexico 6,441
33 Wisconsin 6,065
34 Colorado 5,958
35 Kansas 5,863
36 North Dakota 5,062
37 Washington 5,058
38 Ohio 4,958
39 Idaho 4,600
40 New Hampshire 4,349
41 Oklahoma 4,134
42 Missouri 4,048
43 Kentucky 3,908
44 Wyoming 2,894
45 Puerto Rico 2,688
46 Maine 2,546
47 Oregon 2,466
48 Vermont 2,004
49 West Virginia 1,920
50 Alaska 1,915
51 Montana 1,168
52 Hawaii 714

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 441
2 Florida 432
3 South Carolina 313
4 Texas 228
5 Nevada 222
6 Idaho 221
7 Louisiana 217
8 Alabama 204
9 Georgia 186
10 California 181
11 Arkansas 180
12 Tennessee 177
13 Mississippi 176
14 Utah 164
15 North Carolina 142
16 Delaware 126
17 Kansas 122
18 Iowa 119
19 New Mexico 116
20 Oklahoma 109
21 Wisconsin 100
22 Puerto Rico 94
23 Washington 91
24 Ohio 76
25 Indiana 72
26 Nebraska 67
27 Missouri 66
28 Virginia 66
29 Kentucky 60
30 Maryland 59
31 Oregon 59
32 West Virginia 58
33 Illinois 56
34 Minnesota 55
35 North Dakota 55
36 Alaska 53
37 Wyoming 53
38 South Dakota 47
39 Pennsylvania 46
40 Colorado 41
41 District of Columbia 37
42 Montana 37
43 Michigan 36
44 New Jersey 32
45 New York 30
46 Connecticut 24
47 Massachusetts 24
48 New Hampshire 13
49 Hawaii 12
50 Maine 12
51 Vermont 8
52 Rhode Island 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,714
2 New York 1,640
3 Connecticut 1,216
4 Massachusetts 1,189
5 Rhode Island 906
6 District of Columbia 794
7 Louisiana 709
8 Michigan 623
9 Illinois 572
10 Maryland 536
11 Pennsylvania 531
12 Delaware 525
13 Indiana 400
14 Mississippi 374
15 Colorado 295
16 New Hampshire 280
17 Minnesota 267
18 Georgia 266
19 Arizona 251
20 Ohio 250
21 New Mexico 245
22 Iowa 229
23 Virginia 217
24 Alabama 205
25 Washington 179
26 Florida 175
27 Missouri 174
28 Nevada 174
29 California 163
30 South Carolina 160
31 Nebraska 147
32 Kentucky 138
33 Wisconsin 138
34 North Carolina 135
35 North Dakota 116
36 South Dakota 109
37 Oklahoma 100
38 Kansas 98
39 Arkansas 96
40 Tennessee 94
41 Texas 94
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 81
44 Utah 59
45 West Virginia 53
46 Idaho 52
47 Oregon 51
48 Puerto Rico 48
49 Wyoming 34
50 Montana 21
51 Alaska 19
52 Hawaii 13

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 District of Columbia 2
2 Massachusetts 2
3 New Jersey 2
4 South Carolina 2
5 Arizona 1
6 Arkansas 1
7 California 1
8 Florida 1
9 Louisiana 1
10 Maryland 1
11 Mississippi 1
12 New Hampshire 1
13 New York 1
14 Texas 1
15 Alabama 0
16 Alaska 0
17 Colorado 0
18 Connecticut 0
19 Delaware 0
20 Georgia 0
21 Hawaii 0
22 Idaho 0
23 Illinois 0
24 Indiana 0
25 Iowa 0
26 Kansas 0
27 Kentucky 0
28 Maine 0
29 Michigan 0
30 Minnesota 0
31 Missouri 0
32 Montana 0
33 Nebraska 0
34 Nevada 0
35 New Mexico 0
36 North Carolina 0
37 North Dakota 0
38 Ohio 0
39 Oklahoma 0
40 Oregon 0
41 Pennsylvania 0
42 Puerto Rico 0
43 Rhode Island 0
44 South Dakota 0
45 Tennessee 0
46 Utah 0
47 Vermont 0
48 Virginia 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 132,754 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,917 2 99
Lee Arkansas 90,663 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 89,534 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 87,360 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 17,580 154 95
Richland South Carolina 10,140 444 85
Orange California 6,118 856 72
York South Carolina 5,495 961 69
Pierce Washington 3,549 1416 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,784 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,165 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 2,806 5 99
Richland South Carolina 209 685 78
Davidson Tennessee 174 762 75
Pierce Washington 119 980 68
Orange California 115 1004 68
York South Carolina 43 1585 49

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons